Globo 1–1 Salgueiro: Result & Stats | Serie C

Globo

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Salgueiro

Jean Natal 68'

Dadá Belmonte 28'

4/29/2018

Serie C · Round 3Estádio Manoel Dantas Barreto (Ceara-Mirim, Rio Grande do Norte)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Globo50%

×Draw28%

Salgueiro21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GloboExpected goals in this matchSalgueiro

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

0.76

Globo

1.34

Salgueiro

0.76

Globo creates 76% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 9 away

1.35

creates per match

0.33

1.18

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Globo

1.35

Salgueiro

0.33

allows per match

Globo

1.18

Salgueiro

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Globo+0.00on par

Salgueiro+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Globo ↓

Salgueiro →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Globo or draw

79%

Globo or Salgueiro

72%

Draw or Salgueiro

50%

Winning margin

Globo wins by 2+

24%

Salgueiro wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Globo 1+ goals

74%

Globo 2+ goals

39%

Globo 3+ goals

15%

Salgueiro 1+ goals

53%

Salgueiro 2+ goals

18%

Salgueiro 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Globo (draw refunded)

70%

Salgueiro (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Globo at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

Salgueiro away — creates 0.33, concedes 1.33 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Globo attack 1.35 + Salgueiro defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.34

Salgueiro attack 0.33 + Globo defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Globo scores more

50%

level

28%

Salgueiro scores more

21%

Globo at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Globo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'

Dadá Belmonte

46'

Renatinho Potiguar← Reinaldo

46'

Erikys← Dadá Belmonte

64'

Negueba← Vanger

65'

Escuro← Iury

68'

Jean Natal

82'

Eduardo← Jean Natal

90+2'

João Paulo Peu← Willian Anicete

Globo

Salgueiro

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: Fernando Tonet

46'▲Renatinho Potiguar←▼Reinaldo

64'▲Negueba←▼Vanger

82'▲Eduardo←▼Jean Natal

Globo substitutes

PotiguarNeguebaEduardoSandroCamiloCosmeErickGravatáJamersonVictorGuerreiroCarioca

Manager: Sérgio China

46'▲Erikys←▼Dadá Belmonte

65'▲Escuro←▼Iury

90+2'▲João Paulo Peu←▼Willian Anicete

Salgueiro substitutes

ErikysEscuroPeuVictorTanakaAlexonErinaldoPauloLucianoMarlonVinícius

Match Recap: Globo vs Salgueiro

Globo and Salgueiro drew 1-1 in Serie C on April 29, 2018.

Goals: Dadá Belmonte (28'), Jean Natal (68').

The match was played at Estádio Manoel Dantas Barreto (Ceara-Mirim, Rio Grande do Norte).

Globo vs Salgueiro — Serie C 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Globo vs Salgueiro