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Salgótarjáni BTC vs Jászberényi Vasas — NB III - Northeast 2019

Salgótarjáni BTC
Salgótarjáni BTC
FT
6 – 1
Jászberényi Vasas
Jászberényi Vasas
5/22/2022NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Keleti - 37Szojka Ferenc Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Salgótarjáni BTC47%
×Draw23%
Jászberényi Vasas29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Salgótarjáni BTC
1.75
Jászberényi Vasas
1.33

Salgótarjáni BTC creates 32% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 66 away

creates per match

Salgótarjáni BTC
1.29
Jászberényi Vasas
1.20

allows per match

Salgótarjáni BTC
1.47
Jászberényi Vasas
2.21

finishing

Salgótarjáni BTC+0.00on par
Jászberényi Vasas+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salgótarjáni BTC ↓

Jászberényi Vasas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Salgótarjáni BTC or draw
71%
Salgótarjáni BTC or Jászberényi Vasas
77%
Draw or Jászberényi Vasas
53%

Winning margin

Salgótarjáni BTC wins by 2+
25%
Jászberényi Vasas wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Salgótarjáni BTC 1+ goals
83%
Salgótarjáni BTC 2+ goals
52%
Salgótarjáni BTC 3+ goals
25%
Jászberényi Vasas 1+ goals
74%
Jászberényi Vasas 2+ goals
38%
Jászberényi Vasas 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Salgótarjáni BTC (draw refunded)
62%
Jászberényi Vasas (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salgótarjáni BTC at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.47 · 49 matches

Jászberényi Vasas away — creates 1.20, concedes 2.21 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salgótarjáni BTC attack 1.29 + Jászberényi Vasas defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.75

Jászberényi Vasas attack 1.20 + Salgótarjáni BTC defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Salgótarjáni BTC scores more
47%
level
23%
Jászberényi Vasas scores more
29%

Salgótarjáni BTC at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Salgótarjáni BTC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Northeast: Salgótarjáni BTC 6–1 Jászberényi Vasas

Salgótarjáni BTC beat Jászberényi Vasas 6-1 in NB III - Northeast on May 22, 2022.

The match was played at Szojka Ferenc Stadion in Salgótarján.