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Jászberényi Vasas vs Salgótarjáni BTC — NB III - Northeast 2019

Jászberényi Vasas
Jászberényi Vasas
FT
0 – 0
Salgótarjáni BTC
Salgótarjáni BTC
11/21/2021NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Keleti - 18Városi Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Jászberényi Vasas48%
×Draw23%
Salgótarjáni BTC29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jászberényi Vasas
1.78
Salgótarjáni BTC
1.34

Jászberényi Vasas creates 33% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 49 away

creates per match

Jászberényi Vasas
1.64
Salgótarjáni BTC
0.86

allows per match

Jászberényi Vasas
1.82
Salgótarjáni BTC
1.92

finishing

Jászberényi Vasas+0.00on par
Salgótarjáni BTC+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jászberényi Vasas ↓

Salgótarjáni BTC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Jászberényi Vasas or draw
71%
Jászberényi Vasas or Salgótarjáni BTC
77%
Draw or Salgótarjáni BTC
52%

Winning margin

Jászberényi Vasas wins by 2+
26%
Salgótarjáni BTC wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Jászberényi Vasas 1+ goals
83%
Jászberényi Vasas 2+ goals
53%
Jászberényi Vasas 3+ goals
26%
Salgótarjáni BTC 1+ goals
74%
Salgótarjáni BTC 2+ goals
39%
Salgótarjáni BTC 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Jászberényi Vasas (draw refunded)
62%
Salgótarjáni BTC (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jászberényi Vasas at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.82 · 66 matches

Salgótarjáni BTC away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.92 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jászberényi Vasas attack 1.64 + Salgótarjáni BTC defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.78

Salgótarjáni BTC attack 0.86 + Jászberényi Vasas defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Jászberényi Vasas scores more
48%
level
23%
Salgótarjáni BTC scores more
29%

Jászberényi Vasas at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Jászberényi Vasas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jászberényi Vasas vs Salgótarjáni BTC

Jászberényi Vasas and Salgótarjáni BTC drew 0-0 in NB III - Northeast on November 21, 2021.

The match was played at Városi Stadion in Jászberény.