Salgótarján 2–0 Putnok VSE: Result & Stats

Salgótarján

FT

2 – 0

Putnok VSE

8/12/2020

NB III - Northeast · Keleti - 3Szojka Ferenc Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Salgótarján41%

×Draw24%

Putnok VSE35%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SalgótarjánExpected goals in this matchPutnok VSE

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.48

Salgótarján

1.61

Putnok VSE

1.48

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 112 away

1.68

creates per match

1.63

1.32

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Salgótarján

1.68

Putnok VSE

1.63

allows per match

Salgótarján

1.32

Putnok VSE

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Salgótarján+0.00on par

Putnok VSE+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salgótarján ↓

Putnok VSE →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Salgótarján or draw

65%

Salgótarján or Putnok VSE

76%

Draw or Putnok VSE

59%

Winning margin

Salgótarján wins by 2+

21%

Putnok VSE wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Salgótarján 1+ goals

80%

Salgótarján 2+ goals

48%

Salgótarján 3+ goals

22%

Putnok VSE 1+ goals

77%

Putnok VSE 2+ goals

43%

Putnok VSE 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Salgótarján (draw refunded)

54%

Putnok VSE (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salgótarján at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.32 · 19 matches

Putnok VSE away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.54 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salgótarján attack 1.68 + Putnok VSE defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.61

Putnok VSE attack 1.63 + Salgótarján defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Salgótarján scores more

41%

level

24%

Putnok VSE scores more

35%

Salgótarján at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Salgótarján will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff