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Putnok VSE vs Salgótarján — NB III - Northeast 2019

Putnok VSE
Putnok VSE
FT
2 – 3
Salgótarján
Salgótarján
2/28/2021NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Keleti - 22Várady Béla Sportközpont

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Putnok VSE63%
×Draw19%
Salgótarján18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Putnok VSE
2.33
Salgótarján
1.16

Putnok VSE creates 101% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 19 away

creates per match

Putnok VSE
1.99
Salgótarján
1.16

allows per match

Putnok VSE
1.16
Salgótarján
2.68

finishing

Putnok VSE+0.00on par
Salgótarján+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Putnok VSE ↓

Salgótarján →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Putnok VSE or draw
82%
Putnok VSE or Salgótarján
81%
Draw or Salgótarján
37%

Winning margin

Putnok VSE wins by 2+
41%
Salgótarján wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Putnok VSE 1+ goals
90%
Putnok VSE 2+ goals
67%
Putnok VSE 3+ goals
41%
Salgótarján 1+ goals
69%
Salgótarján 2+ goals
32%
Salgótarján 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Putnok VSE (draw refunded)
78%
Salgótarján (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Putnok VSE at home — creates 1.99, concedes 1.16 · 110 matches

Salgótarján away — creates 1.16, concedes 2.68 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Putnok VSE attack 1.99 + Salgótarján defence 2.68 → ÷2 → 2.33

Salgótarján attack 1.16 + Putnok VSE defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Putnok VSE scores more
63%
level
19%
Salgótarján scores more
18%

Putnok VSE at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Putnok VSE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Putnok VSE vs Salgótarján

Salgótarján beat Putnok VSE 3-2 in NB III - Northeast on February 28, 2021.

The match was played at Várady Béla Sportközpont in Putnok.