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Salgótarján vs Debrecen II — NB III - Northeast 2019

Salgótarján
Salgótarján
FT
2 – 2
Debrecen II
Debrecen II
4/14/2021NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Keleti - 29Szojka Ferenc Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Salgótarján44%
×Draw23%
Debrecen II33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Salgótarján
1.73
Debrecen II
1.47

Salgótarján creates 18% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 111 away

creates per match

Salgótarján
1.68
Debrecen II
1.62

allows per match

Salgótarján
1.32
Debrecen II
1.77

finishing

Salgótarján+0.00on par
Debrecen II+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salgótarján ↓

Debrecen II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Salgótarján or draw
67%
Salgótarján or Debrecen II
77%
Draw or Debrecen II
56%

Winning margin

Salgótarján wins by 2+
23%
Debrecen II wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Salgótarján 1+ goals
82%
Salgótarján 2+ goals
52%
Salgótarján 3+ goals
25%
Debrecen II 1+ goals
77%
Debrecen II 2+ goals
43%
Debrecen II 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Salgótarján (draw refunded)
57%
Debrecen II (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salgótarján at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.32 · 19 matches

Debrecen II away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.77 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salgótarján attack 1.68 + Debrecen II defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.73

Debrecen II attack 1.62 + Salgótarján defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Salgótarján scores more
44%
level
23%
Debrecen II scores more
33%

Salgótarján at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Salgótarján will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Northeast: Salgótarján 2–2 Debrecen II

Salgótarján and Debrecen II drew 2-2 in NB III - Northeast on April 14, 2021.

The match was played at Szojka Ferenc Stadion in Salgótarján.