Debrecen II 2–3 Salgótarján: Result & Stats

Debrecen II

FT

2 – 3

Salgótarján

9/13/2020

NB III - Northeast · Keleti - 10Debreceni Egyetemi AC Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Debrecen II61%

×Draw19%

Salgótarján20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Debrecen IIExpected goals in this matchSalgótarján

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.35

1.27

Debrecen II

2.35

Salgótarján

1.27

Debrecen II creates 85% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 19 away

2.03

creates per match

1.16

1.38

allows per match

2.68

creates per match

Debrecen II

2.03

Salgótarján

1.16

allows per match

Debrecen II

1.38

Salgótarján

2.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Debrecen II+0.00on par

Salgótarján+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Debrecen II ↓

Salgótarján →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

70%30%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Debrecen II or draw

80%

Debrecen II or Salgótarján

81%

Draw or Salgótarján

39%

Winning margin

Debrecen II wins by 2+

39%

Salgótarján wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Debrecen II 1+ goals

90%

Debrecen II 2+ goals

68%

Debrecen II 3+ goals

41%

Salgótarján 1+ goals

72%

Salgótarján 2+ goals

36%

Salgótarján 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Debrecen II (draw refunded)

76%

Salgótarján (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Debrecen II at home — creates 2.03, concedes 1.38 · 111 matches

Salgótarján away — creates 1.16, concedes 2.68 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Debrecen II attack 2.03 + Salgótarján defence 2.68 → ÷2 → 2.35

Salgótarján attack 1.16 + Debrecen II defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Debrecen II scores more

61%

level

19%

Salgótarján scores more

20%

Debrecen II at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Debrecen II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff