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Salgótarján vs Balassagyarmat VSE — NB III - Northeast 2019

Salgótarján
Salgótarján
FT
2 – 2
Balassagyarmat VSE
Balassagyarmat VSE
5/12/2021NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Keleti - 35Szojka Ferenc Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Salgótarján41%
×Draw25%
Balassagyarmat VSE33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Salgótarján
1.46
Balassagyarmat VSE
1.29

Salgótarján creates 13% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 28 away

creates per match

Salgótarján
1.68
Balassagyarmat VSE
1.25

allows per match

Salgótarján
1.32
Balassagyarmat VSE
1.25

finishing

Salgótarján+0.00on par
Balassagyarmat VSE+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salgótarján ↓

Balassagyarmat VSE →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Salgótarján or draw
67%
Salgótarján or Balassagyarmat VSE
75%
Draw or Balassagyarmat VSE
59%

Winning margin

Salgótarján wins by 2+
20%
Balassagyarmat VSE wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Salgótarján 1+ goals
77%
Salgótarján 2+ goals
43%
Salgótarján 3+ goals
18%
Balassagyarmat VSE 1+ goals
72%
Balassagyarmat VSE 2+ goals
37%
Balassagyarmat VSE 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Salgótarján (draw refunded)
55%
Balassagyarmat VSE (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salgótarján at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.32 · 19 matches

Balassagyarmat VSE away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.25 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salgótarján attack 1.68 + Balassagyarmat VSE defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.46

Balassagyarmat VSE attack 1.25 + Salgótarján defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Salgótarján scores more
41%
level
25%
Balassagyarmat VSE scores more
33%

Salgótarján at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Salgótarján will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Northeast: Salgótarján 2–2 Balassagyarmat VSE

Salgótarján and Balassagyarmat VSE drew 2-2 in NB III - Northeast on May 12, 2021.

The match was played at Szojka Ferenc Stadion in Salgótarján.