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Balassagyarmat VSE vs Salgótarján — NB III - Northeast 2019

Balassagyarmat VSE
Balassagyarmat VSE
FT
1 – 1
Salgótarján
Salgótarján
11/1/2020NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Keleti - 16Balassagyarmati Műfüves Pálya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Balassagyarmat VSE60%
×Draw21%
Salgótarján19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Balassagyarmat VSE
2.02
Salgótarján
1.02

Balassagyarmat VSE creates 98% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 19 away

creates per match

Balassagyarmat VSE
1.36
Salgótarján
1.16

allows per match

Balassagyarmat VSE
0.89
Salgótarján
2.68

finishing

Balassagyarmat VSE+0.00on par
Salgótarján+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Balassagyarmat VSE ↓

Salgótarján →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Balassagyarmat VSE or draw
81%
Balassagyarmat VSE or Salgótarján
79%
Draw or Salgótarján
40%

Winning margin

Balassagyarmat VSE wins by 2+
37%
Salgótarján wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Balassagyarmat VSE 1+ goals
87%
Balassagyarmat VSE 2+ goals
60%
Balassagyarmat VSE 3+ goals
33%
Salgótarján 1+ goals
64%
Salgótarján 2+ goals
27%
Salgótarján 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Balassagyarmat VSE (draw refunded)
77%
Salgótarján (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Balassagyarmat VSE at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.89 · 28 matches

Salgótarján away — creates 1.16, concedes 2.68 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Balassagyarmat VSE attack 1.36 + Salgótarján defence 2.68 → ÷2 → 2.02

Salgótarján attack 1.16 + Balassagyarmat VSE defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Balassagyarmat VSE scores more
60%
level
21%
Salgótarján scores more
19%

Balassagyarmat VSE at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Balassagyarmat VSE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Balassagyarmat VSE vs Salgótarján

Balassagyarmat VSE and Salgótarján drew 1-1 in NB III - Northeast on November 1, 2020.

The match was played at Balassagyarmati Műfüves Pálya in Balassagyarmat.