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Salford City vs Swindon Town — League Two 2018

Salford City
Salford City
Preview
14:00
Swindon Town
Swindon Town
9/19/2026League TwoLeague Two · Round 7Peninsula Stadium
Big match
54%
Salford City
model favours
54%24%22%

Swindon Town score first in only 9% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
51%
over 2.5 goals
52%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Salford City54%
×Draw24%
Swindon Town22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Salford City
1.73
Swindon Town
1.00

Salford City creates 73% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 13 away

creates per match

Salford City
1.95
Swindon Town
1.24

allows per match

Salford City
0.77
Swindon Town
1.51

finishing

Salford City-0.32scores less
Swindon Town+0.07on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salford City ↓

Swindon Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Salford City or draw
78%
Salford City or Swindon Town
76%
Draw or Swindon Town
46%

Winning margin

Salford City wins by 2+
30%
Swindon Town wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Salford City 1+ goals
82%
Salford City 2+ goals
52%
Salford City 3+ goals
25%
Swindon Town 1+ goals
63%
Swindon Town 2+ goals
26%
Swindon Town 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Salford City (draw refunded)
71%
Swindon Town (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salford City at home — creates 1.95, concedes 0.77 · 8 matches

Swindon Town away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.51 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salford City attack 1.95 + Swindon Town defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.73

Swindon Town attack 1.24 + Salford City defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Salford City scores more
54%
level
24%
Swindon Town scores more
22%

Salford City at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Salford City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Swindon Town have scored in 11 games running
  • 73% of Swindon Town’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Salford City score first in only 33% of matches
  • Both teams scored in 8 of the last 10 meetings
  • Salford City fall short of their xG (1.4 vs 1.7 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Salford City
Attack-heavy
Swindon Town
Balanced
52%Possession53%
67%Pass accuracy71%
12.9Shots12.4
1.73xGBiggest gap1.44
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Salford CitySwindon Town

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

4
Salford City
4
Draws
2
Swindon Town
Avg goals: 3BTTS: 80%
3–23–22–22–11–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
City
WLLWD
Town
LLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Salford City vs Swindon Town — Match Preview

Salford City face Swindon Town on September 19, 2026 in this League Two fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Salford City host Swindon Town at Peninsula Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.