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Salford City vs Swindon Town — League Two 2018

Salford City
Salford City
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Swindon Town
Swindon Town
11/16/2019League TwoLeague Two · Round 18The Peninsula Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Salford City55%
×Draw24%
Swindon Town21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Salford City
1.75
Swindon Town
0.99

Salford City creates 77% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 14 away

creates per match

Salford City
1.95
Swindon Town
1.22

allows per match

Salford City
0.77
Swindon Town
1.56

finishing

Salford City-0.32scores less
Swindon Town+0.07on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salford City ↓

Swindon Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Salford City or draw
79%
Salford City or Swindon Town
76%
Draw or Swindon Town
45%

Winning margin

Salford City wins by 2+
31%
Swindon Town wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Salford City 1+ goals
83%
Salford City 2+ goals
52%
Salford City 3+ goals
25%
Swindon Town 1+ goals
63%
Swindon Town 2+ goals
26%
Swindon Town 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Salford City (draw refunded)
72%
Swindon Town (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salford City at home — creates 1.95, concedes 0.77 · 8 matches

Swindon Town away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.56 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salford City attack 1.95 + Swindon Town defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.75

Swindon Town attack 1.22 + Salford City defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Salford City scores more
55%
level
24%
Swindon Town scores more
21%

Salford City at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Salford City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Two: Salford City 2–3 Swindon Town

Swindon Town beat Salford City 3-2 in League Two on November 16, 2019.

The match was played at The Peninsula Stadium in Salford, Greater Manchester.