Salford City 0–2 Port Vale: Result & Stats

Salford City

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Port Vale

B. Garrity 69', 45+3'

8/10/2024

League Two · Round 1The Peninsula Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Salford City38%

×Draw27%

Port Vale35%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Salford CityExpected goals in this matchPort Vale

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.25

Salford City

1.30

Port Vale

1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 27 home / 36 away

1.41

creates per match

1.42

1.07

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Salford City

1.41

Port Vale

1.42

allows per match

Salford City

1.07

Port Vale

1.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Salford City+0.00on par

Port Vale+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salford City ↓

Port Vale →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Salford City or draw

65%

Salford City or Port Vale

73%

Draw or Port Vale

62%

Winning margin

Salford City wins by 2+

17%

Port Vale wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Salford City 1+ goals

73%

Salford City 2+ goals

37%

Salford City 3+ goals

14%

Port Vale 1+ goals

71%

Port Vale 2+ goals

36%

Port Vale 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Salford City (draw refunded)

52%

Port Vale (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salford City at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.07 · 27 matches

Port Vale away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.19 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salford City attack 1.41 + Port Vale defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.30

Port Vale attack 1.42 + Salford City defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Salford City scores more

38%

level

27%

Port Vale scores more

35%

Salford City at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Salford City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

B. Garrity

Port Vale · M

8.5

Match Events

34'

38'

39'

45+5'

45+3'

46'

D. Chesters← J. Taylor

60'

B. Woodburn← C. McAleny

60'

M. Dackers← C. Stockton

67'

B. Dipepa← R. Paton

68'

B. Baker-Boaitey← L. Tolaj

69'

B. Garrity↳ R. Curtis

74'

J. Luamba← K. N’Mai

74'

M. Lund← O. Ashley

87'

F. Ojo← B. Garrity

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SalfordPort

Overview

55%Possession45%

8Total Shots7

3Corners7

7Fouls17

Shots

8Total Shots7

2On Target4

1Off Target1

5Blocked2

5Inside Box5

3Outside Box2

Passing

55%Possession45%

366Total Passes297

214Accurate Passes154

58%Pass Accuracy52%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

7Fouls17

2Yellow Cards2

0Offsides1