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Port Vale vs Salford City — League Two 2025

Port Vale
Port Vale
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Salford City
Salford City
R. Harper 52'
A. Hackford 43'
H. Adelakun 77' (pen)
2/22/2025League TwoLeague Two · Round 33Vale Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Port Vale43%
×Draw26%
Salford City30%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Port Vale
1.42
Salford City
1.14

Port Vale creates 25% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 28 away

creates per match

Port Vale
1.66
Salford City
1.18

allows per match

Port Vale
1.09
Salford City
1.18

finishing

Port Vale+0.00on par
Salford City+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Port Vale ↓

Salford City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Port Vale or draw
70%
Port Vale or Salford City
74%
Draw or Salford City
57%

Winning margin

Port Vale wins by 2+
21%
Salford City wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Port Vale 1+ goals
76%
Port Vale 2+ goals
41%
Port Vale 3+ goals
17%
Salford City 1+ goals
68%
Salford City 2+ goals
32%
Salford City 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Port Vale (draw refunded)
59%
Salford City (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Port Vale at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.09 · 35 matches

Salford City away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.18 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Port Vale attack 1.66 + Salford City defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.42

Salford City attack 1.18 + Port Vale defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Port Vale scores more
43%
level
26%
Salford City scores more
30%

Port Vale at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Port Vale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5
C. HallPort ValePort Vale · D
7.9

Match Events

17'
Haji Mnoga
35'
W. Wright← C. Stockton
43'
A. Hackford↳ R. Curtis
46'
R. Longelo← L. Garbutt
52'
R. Harper
62'
J. Curran-Nichols← J. Taylor
65'
J. Umolu← A. Hackford
71'
Will Wright
77'
H. AdelakunPenalty
79'
J. Shorrock← S. Hart
80'
E. Chislett← R. Harper
88'
B. Heneghan← K. John
90+6'
Ronan Curtis

Possession

48%Port

Shots

9Port

Pass accuracy

52%Port

Statistics

PortSalford
Overview
48%Possession52%
9Total Shots11
6Corners5
7Fouls12
Shots
9Total Shots11
5On Target1
1Off Target6
3Blocked4
6Inside Box9
3Outside Box2
Passing
48%Possession52%
282Total Passes304
183Accurate Passes186
65%Pass Accuracy61%
Goalkeeping
0Saves2
Discipline
7Fouls12
0Yellow Cards2
1Red Cards0
1Offsides0

Match Recap: Port Vale vs Salford City

Port Vale beat Salford City 2-1 in League Two on February 22, 2025.

Goals: A. Hackford (43'), R. Harper (52'), H. Adelakun (77' pen).

Salford City controlled possession (52%) and registered 11 shots to 9.

The match was played at Vale Park in Stoke-on-Trent, Staffordshire.