Salford City 1–0 Port Vale: Result & Stats

Salford City

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Port Vale

3/2/2021

League Two · Round 33The Peninsula Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 118+ matches

Salford City39%

×Draw27%

Port Vale33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Salford CityExpected goals in this matchPort Vale

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

1.15

Salford City

1.28

Port Vale

1.15

Salford City creates 11% more chances

Season form · 158 home / 118 away

1.40

creates per match

1.16

1.15

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Salford City

1.40

Port Vale

1.16

allows per match

Salford City

1.15

Port Vale

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Salford City+0.00on par

Port Vale+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salford City ↓

Port Vale →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Salford City or draw

67%

Salford City or Port Vale

73%

Draw or Port Vale

61%

Winning margin

Salford City wins by 2+

18%

Port Vale wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Salford City 1+ goals

72%

Salford City 2+ goals

37%

Salford City 3+ goals

14%

Port Vale 1+ goals

68%

Port Vale 2+ goals

32%

Port Vale 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Salford City (draw refunded)

54%

Port Vale (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salford City at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.15 · 158 matches

Port Vale away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.17 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salford City attack 1.40 + Port Vale defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.28

Port Vale attack 1.16 + Salford City defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Salford City scores more

39%

level

27%

Port Vale scores more

33%

Salford City at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Salford City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff