Salford City vs Oldham — League Two 2024
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 48+ matches
Salford City43%
Oldham31%✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Salford City creates 23% more chances
Season form · 49 home / 48 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under52
- Over48
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes53
- No47
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Salford City ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Salford City at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.12 · 49 matches
Oldham away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.44 · 48 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Salford City attack 1.43 + Oldham defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.44
Oldham attack 1.21 + Salford City defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.17
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 43%?"
Salford City at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 43% does not mean "Salford City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Salford City substitutes
Notts County
Bromley
Milton Keynes DonsSalford City
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Grimsby
Chesterfield
Barnet
Swindon TownOldham
Crewe
Colchester
Walsall
Bristol Rovers
Fleetwood Town
Accrington ST
Gillingham
Cheltenham
Shrewsbury
Newport County
Tranmere
Crawley Town
Harrogate Town
BarrowIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Salford City host Oldham on Saturday, 18 October 2025 at 11:30. The match is part of the League Two 2024/2025 season.
Match Recap: Salford City vs Oldham
Salford City beat Oldham 1-0 in League Two on October 18, 2025.
Goals: D. Udoh (14').
Oldham controlled possession (51%) and registered 15 shots to 29.
The match was played at Peninsula Stadium in Salford.