Oldham 1–2 Salford City: Result & Stats

Oldham

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Salford City

D. Keillor-Dunn 33' (pen)

B. Thomas-Asante 45+3'

M. Smith 8'

4/23/2022

League Two · Round 44Boundary Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Oldham40%

×Draw25%

Salford City35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OldhamExpected goals in this matchSalford City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.38

Oldham

1.48

Salford City

1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 5 away

1.70

creates per match

1.43

1.33

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Oldham

1.70

Salford City

1.43

allows per match

Oldham

1.33

Salford City

1.27

-0.16scores less than expected

finishing

-0.43scores less than expected

finishing

Oldham-0.16scores less

Salford City-0.43scores less

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oldham ↓

Salford City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Oldham or draw

65%

Oldham or Salford City

75%

Draw or Salford City

60%

Winning margin

Oldham wins by 2+

19%

Salford City wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Oldham 1+ goals

77%

Oldham 2+ goals

43%

Oldham 3+ goals

19%

Salford City 1+ goals

75%

Salford City 2+ goals

40%

Salford City 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Oldham (draw refunded)

53%

Salford City (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oldham at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.33 · 13 matches

Salford City away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.27 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oldham attack 1.70 + Salford City defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.48

Salford City attack 1.43 + Oldham defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Oldham scores more

40%

level

25%

Salford City scores more

35%

Oldham at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Oldham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

M. Smith

Salford City · F

7.7

Match Events

8'

M. Smith

32'

Jordan Turnbull

33'

D. Keillor-DunnPenalty

45+3'

B. Thomas-Asante↳ I. Touray

49'

D. Love← M. Lund

66'

L. Bolton← A. Hunter

68'

J. Hopcutt← J. Stobbs

74'

H. Vaughan← C. Whelan

78'

Brandon Thomas-Asante

85'

I. Henderson← B. Thomas-Asante

89'

Benny Couto← H. Hope

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

OldhamSalford

Overview

48%Possession52%

15Total Shots10

8Corners2

7Fouls15

Shots

15Total Shots10

6On Target5

6Off Target4

3Blocked1

12Inside Box7

3Outside Box3

Passing

48%Possession52%

267Total Passes306

194Accurate Passes216

73%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

3Saves5

Discipline

7Fouls15

0Yellow Cards2

0Offsides1