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Salford City vs Northampton — League Two 2018

Salford City
Salford City
Preview
15:00
Northampton
Northampton
11/14/2026League TwoLeague Two · Round 15Peninsula Stadium
Big match
40%
Salford City
model favours
40%27%33%

Salford City score first in only 33% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
54%
under 2.5 goals
51%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

Salford City40%
×Draw27%
Northampton33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Salford City
1.32
Northampton
1.19

Salford City creates 11% more chances

Season form · 157 home / 88 away

creates per match

Salford City
1.40
Northampton
1.24

allows per match

Salford City
1.14
Northampton
1.24

finishing

Salford City+0.00on par
Northampton+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salford City ↓

Northampton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Salford City or draw
67%
Salford City or Northampton
73%
Draw or Northampton
60%

Winning margin

Salford City wins by 2+
18%
Northampton wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Salford City 1+ goals
73%
Salford City 2+ goals
38%
Salford City 3+ goals
15%
Northampton 1+ goals
70%
Northampton 2+ goals
33%
Northampton 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Salford City (draw refunded)
54%
Northampton (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salford City at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.14 · 157 matches

Northampton away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.24 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salford City attack 1.40 + Northampton defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.32

Northampton attack 1.24 + Salford City defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Salford City scores more
40%
level
27%
Northampton scores more
33%

Salford City at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Salford City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Salford City fall short of their xG (1.4 vs 1.7 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Salford City
Attack-heavy
Northampton
Balanced
52%Possession48%
67%Pass accuracy65%
13.2ShotsBiggest gap11.9
1.73xG—
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Salford CityNorthampton

Head-to-head

6 previous meetings

2
Salford City
1
Draws
3
Northampton
Avg goals: 2.3BTTS: 50%
2–11–00–12–21–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
City
WLLWD
Northampton
WDLLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Salford City host Northampton

November 14, 2026: Salford City take on Northampton in League Two. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Salford City host Northampton at Peninsula Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.