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Northampton vs Salford City — League Two 2018

Northampton
Northampton
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Salford City
Salford City
P. Lewis 12'
1/29/2022League TwoLeague Two · Round 29Sixfields Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Northampton42%
×Draw27%
Salford City31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Northampton
1.34
Salford City
1.10

Northampton creates 22% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 156 away

creates per match

Northampton
1.48
Salford City
1.31

allows per match

Northampton
0.89
Salford City
1.20

finishing

Northampton+0.00on par
Salford City+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Northampton ↓

Salford City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Northampton or draw
69%
Northampton or Salford City
73%
Draw or Salford City
58%

Winning margin

Northampton wins by 2+
19%
Salford City wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Northampton 1+ goals
74%
Northampton 2+ goals
39%
Northampton 3+ goals
15%
Salford City 1+ goals
67%
Salford City 2+ goals
30%
Salford City 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Northampton (draw refunded)
58%
Salford City (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Northampton at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.89 · 90 matches

Salford City away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.20 · 156 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Northampton attack 1.48 + Salford City defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.34

Salford City attack 1.31 + Northampton defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Northampton scores more
42%
level
27%
Salford City scores more
31%

Northampton at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Northampton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
L. RobertsNorthamptonNorthampton · G
7.5

Match Events

12'
P. Lewis
35'
Jason Lowe
66'
Corrie Ndaba
71'
J. Eppiah← I. Kanu
72'
T. Magloire← P. Lewis
78'
S. Kelly← C. McAleny
79'
M. Lund← T. Vassell
79'
L. Loughlan← A. Hunter
87'
D. Rose← S. Hoskins

Possession

54%Northampton

Shots

10Northampton

Pass accuracy

52%Northampton

Statistics

NorthamptonSalford
Overview
54%Possession46%
10Total Shots6
8Corners8
12Fouls14
Shots
10Total Shots6
4On Target2
4Off Target2
2Blocked2
6Inside Box5
4Outside Box1
Passing
54%Possession46%
393Total Passes344
239Accurate Passes192
61%Pass Accuracy56%
Goalkeeping
3Saves2
Discipline
12Fouls14
0Yellow Cards2
1Offsides2

Match Recap: Northampton vs Salford City

Northampton beat Salford City 1-0 in League Two on January 29, 2022.

Goals: P. Lewis (12').

Northampton controlled possession (54%) and registered 10 shots to 6.

The match was played at Sixfields Stadium in Northampton, East Midlands.