Salford City 2–1 Northampton: Result & Stats

Salford City

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Northampton

C. McAleny 33'

E. Galbraith 9'

S. Hoskins 22'

1/7/2023

League Two · Round 26The Peninsula Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

Salford City40%

×Draw27%

Northampton33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Salford CityExpected goals in this matchNorthampton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.19

Salford City

1.32

Northampton

1.19

Salford City creates 11% more chances

Season form · 157 home / 88 away

1.40

creates per match

1.24

1.14

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Salford City

1.40

Northampton

1.24

allows per match

Salford City

1.14

Northampton

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Salford City+0.00on par

Northampton+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salford City ↓

Northampton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Salford City or draw

67%

Salford City or Northampton

73%

Draw or Northampton

60%

Winning margin

Salford City wins by 2+

18%

Northampton wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Salford City 1+ goals

73%

Salford City 2+ goals

38%

Salford City 3+ goals

15%

Northampton 1+ goals

70%

Northampton 2+ goals

33%

Northampton 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Salford City (draw refunded)

54%

Northampton (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salford City at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.14 · 157 matches

Northampton away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.24 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salford City attack 1.40 + Northampton defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.32

Northampton attack 1.24 + Salford City defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Salford City scores more

40%

level

27%

Northampton scores more

33%

Salford City at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Salford City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12

M. Leonard

Northampton · M

8.0

Match Events

9'

E. Galbraith

22'

S. Hoskins

33'

C. McAleny↳ R. Watson

46'

56'

60'

66'

72'

75'

79'

88'

J. Sowerby← A. Odimayo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SalfordNorthampton

Overview

47%Possession53%

13Total Shots12

2Corners4

9Fouls13

Shots

13Total Shots12

6On Target4

5Off Target2

2Blocked6

7Inside Box7

6Outside Box5

Passing

47%Possession53%

320Total Passes352

197Accurate Passes217

62%Pass Accuracy62%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

9Fouls13

1Yellow Cards1

2Offsides4