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Salford City vs Morecambe — League Two 2018

Salford City
Salford City
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Morecambe
Morecambe
3/17/2024League TwoLeague Two · Round 39The Peninsula Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 112+ matches

Salford City47%
×Draw25%
Morecambe27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Salford City
1.57
Morecambe
1.13

Salford City creates 39% more chances

Season form · 158 home / 112 away

creates per match

Salford City
1.40
Morecambe
1.10

allows per match

Salford City
1.15
Morecambe
1.75

finishing

Salford City+0.00on par
Morecambe+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salford City ↓

Morecambe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
28%72%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Salford City or draw
73%
Salford City or Morecambe
75%
Draw or Morecambe
53%

Winning margin

Salford City wins by 2+
24%
Morecambe wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Salford City 1+ goals
79%
Salford City 2+ goals
46%
Salford City 3+ goals
21%
Morecambe 1+ goals
68%
Morecambe 2+ goals
31%
Morecambe 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Salford City (draw refunded)
63%
Morecambe (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salford City at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.15 · 158 matches

Morecambe away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.75 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salford City attack 1.40 + Morecambe defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.57

Morecambe attack 1.10 + Salford City defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Salford City scores more
47%
level
25%
Morecambe scores more
27%

Salford City at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Salford City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Two: Salford City 3–1 Morecambe

Salford City beat Morecambe 3-1 in League Two on March 17, 2024.

The match was played at The Peninsula Stadium in Salford, Greater Manchester.