Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Morecambe vs Salford City — League Two 2018

Morecambe
Morecambe
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Salford City
Salford City
2/23/2021League TwoLeague Two · Round 31Globe Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 111+ matches

Morecambe35%
×Draw27%
Salford City38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Morecambe
1.25
Salford City
1.32

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 111 home / 158 away

creates per match

Morecambe
1.31
Salford City
1.32

allows per match

Morecambe
1.32
Salford City
1.20

finishing

Morecambe+0.00on par
Salford City+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Morecambe ↓

Salford City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Morecambe or draw
62%
Morecambe or Salford City
73%
Draw or Salford City
65%

Winning margin

Morecambe wins by 2+
15%
Salford City wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Morecambe 1+ goals
71%
Morecambe 2+ goals
36%
Morecambe 3+ goals
13%
Salford City 1+ goals
73%
Salford City 2+ goals
38%
Salford City 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Morecambe (draw refunded)
48%
Salford City (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Morecambe at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.32 · 111 matches

Salford City away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.20 · 158 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Morecambe attack 1.31 + Salford City defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.25

Salford City attack 1.32 + Morecambe defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Morecambe scores more
35%
level
27%
Salford City scores more
38%

Salford City at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Salford City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Morecambe vs Salford City

Morecambe beat Salford City 2-1 in League Two on February 23, 2021.

The match was played at Globe Arena in Morecambe, Lancashire.