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Salford City vs Leyton Orient — League Two 2018

Salford City
Salford City
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Leyton Orient
Leyton Orient
M. Willock 41'
O. Beckles 33'
8/7/2021League TwoLeague Two · Round 1The Peninsula Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Salford City40%
×Draw27%
Leyton Orient33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Salford City
1.30
Leyton Orient
1.15

Salford City creates 13% more chances

Season form · 157 home / 94 away

creates per match

Salford City
1.40
Leyton Orient
1.17

allows per match

Salford City
1.14
Leyton Orient
1.20

finishing

Salford City+0.00on par
Leyton Orient+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salford City ↓

Leyton Orient →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Salford City or draw
67%
Salford City or Leyton Orient
73%
Draw or Leyton Orient
60%

Winning margin

Salford City wins by 2+
18%
Leyton Orient wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Salford City 1+ goals
73%
Salford City 2+ goals
37%
Salford City 3+ goals
14%
Leyton Orient 1+ goals
68%
Leyton Orient 2+ goals
32%
Leyton Orient 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Salford City (draw refunded)
55%
Leyton Orient (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salford City at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.14 · 157 matches

Leyton Orient away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.20 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salford City attack 1.40 + Leyton Orient defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.30

Leyton Orient attack 1.17 + Salford City defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Salford City scores more
40%
level
27%
Leyton Orient scores more
33%

Salford City at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Salford City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11
J. MorrisSalford CitySalford City · M
7.7

Match Events

33'
O. Beckles
41'
M. Willock↳ I. Touray
51'
T. Archibald← C. Clay
80'
Jordan Turnbull
87'
J. Sweeney← C. Wood
88'
Darren Pratley
89'
R. Sotiriou← P. Smyth

Possession

52%Salford

Shots

13Salford

Pass accuracy

51%Salford

Statistics

SalfordLeyton
Overview
52%Possession48%
13Total Shots11
7Corners5
11Fouls11
Shots
13Total Shots11
6On Target5
6Off Target6
1Blocked0
6Inside Box8
7Outside Box3
Passing
52%Possession48%
392Total Passes352
270Accurate Passes236
69%Pass Accuracy67%
Goalkeeping
4Saves5
Discipline
11Fouls11
1Yellow Cards1
4Offsides4

League Two: Salford City 1–1 Leyton Orient

Salford City and Leyton Orient drew 1-1 in League Two on August 7, 2021.

Goals: O. Beckles (33'), M. Willock (41').

Salford City controlled possession (52%) and registered 13 shots to 11.

The match was played at The Peninsula Stadium in Salford, Greater Manchester.