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Leyton Orient vs Salford City — League Two 2018

Leyton Orient
Leyton Orient
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Salford City
Salford City
P. Smyth 14'
10/29/2022League TwoLeague Two · Round 17Brisbane Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 98+ matches

Leyton Orient38%
×Draw27%
Salford City35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leyton Orient
1.30
Salford City
1.22

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 98 home / 156 away

creates per match

Leyton Orient
1.41
Salford City
1.31

allows per match

Leyton Orient
1.13
Salford City
1.20

finishing

Leyton Orient+0.00on par
Salford City+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leyton Orient ↓

Salford City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Leyton Orient or draw
65%
Leyton Orient or Salford City
73%
Draw or Salford City
62%

Winning margin

Leyton Orient wins by 2+
17%
Salford City wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Leyton Orient 1+ goals
73%
Leyton Orient 2+ goals
37%
Leyton Orient 3+ goals
14%
Salford City 1+ goals
70%
Salford City 2+ goals
34%
Salford City 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Leyton Orient (draw refunded)
53%
Salford City (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leyton Orient at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.13 · 98 matches

Salford City away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.20 · 156 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leyton Orient attack 1.41 + Salford City defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.30

Salford City attack 1.31 + Leyton Orient defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Leyton Orient scores more
38%
level
27%
Salford City scores more
35%

Leyton Orient at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Leyton Orient will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2
T. JamesLeyton OrientLeyton Orient · D
7.5

Match Events

14'
P. Smyth↳ R. Hunt
27'
Matthew Lund
36'
Ibou Touray
53'
C. Clay← D. Pratley
72'
M. Dackers← Elliot Simões
72'
L. Tolaj← M. Smith
78'
G. Moncur← T. Archibald
89'
S. Duke-McKenna← R. Sotiriou
90+1'
Paul Smyth
90+1'
Odin Bailey

Possession

60%Leyton

Shots

17Leyton

Pass accuracy

53%Leyton

Statistics

LeytonSalford
Overview
60%Possession40%
17Total Shots7
7Corners1
11Fouls13
Shots
17Total Shots7
4On Target0
7Off Target4
6Blocked3
12Inside Box4
5Outside Box3
Passing
60%Possession40%
476Total Passes306
369Accurate Passes207
78%Pass Accuracy68%
Goalkeeping
0Saves3
Discipline
11Fouls13
1Yellow Cards3
1Offsides2

Match Recap: Leyton Orient vs Salford City

Leyton Orient beat Salford City 1-0 in League Two on October 29, 2022.

Goals: P. Smyth (14').

Leyton Orient controlled possession (60%) and registered 17 shots to 7.

The match was played at Brisbane Road in London.