Salford City 0–2 Gillingham: Result & Stats

Salford City

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Gillingham

3/2/2024

League Two · Round 36The Peninsula Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Salford City46%

×Draw27%

Gillingham27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Salford CityExpected goals in this matchGillingham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

0.99

Salford City

1.38

Gillingham

0.99

Salford City creates 39% more chances

Season form · 158 home / 92 away

1.40

creates per match

0.84

1.15

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Salford City

1.40

Gillingham

0.84

allows per match

Salford City

1.15

Gillingham

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Salford City+0.00on par

Gillingham+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salford City ↓

Gillingham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Salford City or draw

73%

Salford City or Gillingham

73%

Draw or Gillingham

54%

Winning margin

Salford City wins by 2+

22%

Gillingham wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Salford City 1+ goals

75%

Salford City 2+ goals

40%

Salford City 3+ goals

16%

Gillingham 1+ goals

63%

Gillingham 2+ goals

26%

Gillingham 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Salford City (draw refunded)

63%

Gillingham (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salford City at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.15 · 158 matches

Gillingham away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.36 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salford City attack 1.40 + Gillingham defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.38

Gillingham attack 0.84 + Salford City defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Salford City scores more

46%

level

27%

Gillingham scores more

27%

Salford City at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Salford City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff