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Gillingham vs Salford City — League Two 2018

Gillingham
Gillingham
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Salford City
Salford City
10/25/2025League TwoLeague Two · Round 14Priestfield Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Gillingham34%
×Draw28%
Salford City37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gillingham
1.14
Salford City
1.20

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 92 home / 158 away

creates per match

Gillingham
1.08
Salford City
1.32

allows per match

Gillingham
1.08
Salford City
1.20

finishing

Gillingham+0.00on par
Salford City+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gillingham ↓

Salford City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Gillingham or draw
63%
Gillingham or Salford City
72%
Draw or Salford City
66%

Winning margin

Gillingham wins by 2+
14%
Salford City wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Gillingham 1+ goals
68%
Gillingham 2+ goals
32%
Gillingham 3+ goals
11%
Salford City 1+ goals
70%
Salford City 2+ goals
34%
Salford City 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Gillingham (draw refunded)
48%
Salford City (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gillingham at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.08 · 92 matches

Salford City away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.20 · 158 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gillingham attack 1.08 + Salford City defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.14

Salford City attack 1.32 + Gillingham defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Gillingham scores more
34%
level
28%
Salford City scores more
37%

Salford City at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Salford City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Two: Gillingham 1–2 Salford City

Salford City beat Gillingham 2-1 in League Two on October 25, 2025.

The match was played at Priestfield Stadium in Gillingham.