Salford City 1–1 Crewe: Result & Stats | League Two

Salford City

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Crewe

3/8/2025

League Two · Round 36The Peninsula Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 134+ matches

Salford City42%

×Draw27%

Crewe31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Salford CityExpected goals in this matchCrewe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.11

Salford City

1.36

Crewe

1.11

Salford City creates 23% more chances

Season form · 158 home / 134 away

1.40

creates per match

1.07

1.15

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Salford City

1.40

Crewe

1.07

allows per match

Salford City

1.15

Crewe

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Salford City+0.00on par

Crewe+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salford City ↓

Crewe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Salford City or draw

69%

Salford City or Crewe

73%

Draw or Crewe

58%

Winning margin

Salford City wins by 2+

20%

Crewe wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Salford City 1+ goals

74%

Salford City 2+ goals

39%

Salford City 3+ goals

16%

Crewe 1+ goals

67%

Crewe 2+ goals

30%

Crewe 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Salford City (draw refunded)

58%

Crewe (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salford City at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.15 · 158 matches

Crewe away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.32 · 134 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salford City attack 1.40 + Crewe defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.36

Crewe attack 1.07 + Salford City defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Salford City scores more

42%

level

27%

Crewe scores more

31%

Salford City at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Salford City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff