Crewe 2–3 Salford City: Result & Stats | League Two

Crewe

FT

2 – 3

HT: 2 – 1

Salford City

1/27/2024

League Two · Round 30Mornflake Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Crewe34%

×Draw25%

Salford City41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CreweExpected goals in this matchSalford City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

1.54

Crewe

1.37

Salford City

1.54

Salford City creates 12% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 5 away

1.47

creates per match

1.43

1.66

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Crewe

1.47

Salford City

1.43

allows per match

Crewe

1.66

Salford City

1.27

+0.08on par

finishing

-0.43scores less than expected

finishing

Crewe+0.08on par

Salford City-0.43scores less

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crewe ↓

Salford City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Crewe or draw

59%

Crewe or Salford City

75%

Draw or Salford City

66%

Winning margin

Crewe wins by 2+

15%

Salford City wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Crewe 1+ goals

75%

Crewe 2+ goals

40%

Crewe 3+ goals

16%

Salford City 1+ goals

79%

Salford City 2+ goals

45%

Salford City 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Crewe (draw refunded)

45%

Salford City (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crewe at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.66 · 11 matches

Salford City away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.27 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crewe attack 1.47 + Salford City defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.37

Salford City attack 1.43 + Crewe defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Crewe scores more

34%

level

25%

Salford City scores more

41%

Salford City at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Salford City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff