Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Salford City vs Crewe — League Two 2018

Salford City
Salford City
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Crewe
Crewe
12/26/2019League TwoLeague Two · Round 23The Peninsula Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Salford City53%
×Draw24%
Crewe23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Salford City
1.69
Crewe
1.04

Salford City creates 63% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 8 away

creates per match

Salford City
1.95
Crewe
1.30

allows per match

Salford City
0.77
Crewe
1.44

finishing

Salford City-0.32scores less
Crewe-0.05on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salford City ↓

Crewe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Salford City or draw
77%
Salford City or Crewe
76%
Draw or Crewe
47%

Winning margin

Salford City wins by 2+
28%
Crewe wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Salford City 1+ goals
82%
Salford City 2+ goals
50%
Salford City 3+ goals
24%
Crewe 1+ goals
65%
Crewe 2+ goals
28%
Crewe 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Salford City (draw refunded)
69%
Crewe (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salford City at home — creates 1.95, concedes 0.77 · 8 matches

Crewe away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.44 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salford City attack 1.95 + Crewe defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.69

Crewe attack 1.30 + Salford City defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Salford City scores more
53%
level
24%
Crewe scores more
23%

Salford City at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Salford City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Salford City vs Crewe

Salford City beat Crewe 3-1 in League Two on December 26, 2019.

The match was played at The Peninsula Stadium in Salford, Greater Manchester.