Salford City 1–4 Carlisle: Result & Stats

Salford City

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 1

Carlisle

M. Smith 52'

K. Dennis 80', 3'

C. Whelan 72'

C. Guy 67'

11/19/2022

League Two · Round 19The Peninsula Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 115+ matches

Salford City43%

×Draw27%

Carlisle30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Salford CityExpected goals in this matchCarlisle

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.10

Salford City

1.38

Carlisle

1.10

Salford City creates 25% more chances

Season form · 157 home / 115 away

1.40

creates per match

1.07

1.14

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Salford City

1.40

Carlisle

1.07

allows per match

Salford City

1.14

Carlisle

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Salford City+0.00on par

Carlisle+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salford City ↓

Carlisle →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Salford City or draw

70%

Salford City or Carlisle

73%

Draw or Carlisle

57%

Winning margin

Salford City wins by 2+

20%

Carlisle wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Salford City 1+ goals

75%

Salford City 2+ goals

40%

Salford City 3+ goals

16%

Carlisle 1+ goals

67%

Carlisle 2+ goals

30%

Carlisle 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Salford City (draw refunded)

59%

Carlisle (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salford City at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.14 · 157 matches

Carlisle away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.35 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salford City attack 1.40 + Carlisle defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.38

Carlisle attack 1.07 + Salford City defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Salford City scores more

43%

level

27%

Carlisle scores more

30%

Salford City at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Salford City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

K. Dennis

Carlisle · F

8.3

Match Events

3'

K. Dennis

19'

C. Whelan← M. Feeney

25'

J. Ellis← F. Back

43'

Callum Anthony Guy

45+2'

Richard Nartey

52'

M. Smith↳ I. Touray

64'

A. Eastham← R. Nartey

65'

Ryan Leak

67'

C. Guy

72'

C. Whelan↳ T. Charters

80'

K. Dennis

81'

C. McAleny← L. Tolaj

81'

R. Watson← J. Jenkins

82'

J. Stretton← K. Dennis

82'

J. Gibson← T. Charters

84'

Callum Hendry

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SalfordCarlisle

Overview

65%Possession35%

14Total Shots18

8Corners6

8Fouls9

Shots

14Total Shots18

5On Target7

5Off Target5

4Blocked6

6Inside Box9

8Outside Box9

Passing

65%Possession35%

439Total Passes249

302Accurate Passes127

69%Pass Accuracy51%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

8Fouls9

3Yellow Cards1

2Offsides2

Match Recap: Salford City vs Carlisle

Carlisle beat Salford City 4-1 in League Two on November 19, 2022.

Goals: K. Dennis (3', 80'), M. Smith (52'), C. Guy (67'), C. Whelan (72').

Salford City controlled possession (65%) and registered 14 shots to 18.

The match was played at The Peninsula Stadium in Salford, Greater Manchester.

Salford City vs Carlisle — League Two 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Salford City vs Carlisle