Carlisle 2–2 Salford City: Result & Stats

Carlisle

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Salford City

M. Dennis 17'

S. Wearne 16'

H. Adelakun 62'

C. Stockton 36'

5/3/2025

League Two · Round 46Brunton Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 112+ matches

Carlisle36%

×Draw27%

Salford City37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CarlisleExpected goals in this matchSalford City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.26

Carlisle

1.23

Salford City

1.26

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 112 home / 156 away

1.26

creates per match

1.31

1.21

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Carlisle

1.26

Salford City

1.31

allows per match

Carlisle

1.21

Salford City

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Carlisle+0.00on par

Salford City+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carlisle ↓

Salford City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Carlisle or draw

63%

Carlisle or Salford City

73%

Draw or Salford City

64%

Winning margin

Carlisle wins by 2+

15%

Salford City wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Carlisle 1+ goals

71%

Carlisle 2+ goals

35%

Carlisle 3+ goals

13%

Salford City 1+ goals

72%

Salford City 2+ goals

36%

Salford City 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Carlisle (draw refunded)

49%

Salford City (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carlisle at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.21 · 112 matches

Salford City away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.20 · 156 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carlisle attack 1.26 + Salford City defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.23

Salford City attack 1.31 + Carlisle defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Carlisle scores more

36%

level

27%

Salford City scores more

37%

Salford City at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Salford City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

B. Woodburn

Salford City · F

8.2

Match Events

16'

S. Wearne↳ S. Fusire

17'

M. Dennis↳ J. Ellis

25'

L. Warrington← O. Ashley

36'

C. Stockton↳ B. Woodburn

46'

J. Austerfield← L. Garbutt

62'

E. Embleton← S. Fusire

62'

H. Adelakun↳ K. N’Mai

63'

J. Hugill← M. Dennis

71'

Terell Thomas

73'

C. Guy← C. Whelan

74'

P. Dummett← K. Harris

86'

C. McAleny← B. Woodburn

88'

M. Lund← J. Austerfield

90+3'

Georgie Kelly

90+4'

B. Barclay← S. Wearne

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CarlisleSalford

Overview

56%Possession44%

8Total Shots16

6Corners8

8Fouls9

Shots

8Total Shots16

3On Target8

2Off Target7

3Blocked1

5Inside Box11

3Outside Box5

Passing

56%Possession44%

392Total Passes297

291Accurate Passes210

74%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

6Saves1

Discipline

8Fouls9

2Yellow Cards0

3Offsides11