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Salford City vs Carlisle — League Two 2018

Salford City
Salford City
CANC
00:00
Carlisle
Carlisle
4/10/2020League TwoLeague Two · Round 43The Peninsula Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 115+ matches

Salford City43%
×Draw27%
Carlisle30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Salford City
1.38
Carlisle
1.10

Salford City creates 25% more chances

Season form · 157 home / 115 away

creates per match

Salford City
1.40
Carlisle
1.07

allows per match

Salford City
1.14
Carlisle
1.35

finishing

Salford City+0.00on par
Carlisle+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salford City ↓

Carlisle →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Salford City or draw
70%
Salford City or Carlisle
73%
Draw or Carlisle
57%

Winning margin

Salford City wins by 2+
20%
Carlisle wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Salford City 1+ goals
75%
Salford City 2+ goals
40%
Salford City 3+ goals
16%
Carlisle 1+ goals
67%
Carlisle 2+ goals
30%
Carlisle 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Salford City (draw refunded)
59%
Carlisle (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salford City at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.14 · 157 matches

Carlisle away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.35 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salford City attack 1.40 + Carlisle defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.38

Carlisle attack 1.07 + Salford City defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Salford City scores more
43%
level
27%
Carlisle scores more
30%

Salford City at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Salford City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Salford City vs Carlisle — Match Preview

Salford City face Carlisle on April 10, 2020 in this League Two fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Salford City host Carlisle at The Peninsula Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.