Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Salford City vs Barrow — League Two 2018

Salford City
Salford City
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Barrow
Barrow
3/17/2026League TwoLeague Two · Round 38Peninsula Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Salford City63%
×Draw21%
Barrow15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Salford City
1.93
Barrow
0.82

Salford City creates 135% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 8 away

creates per match

Salford City
1.95
Barrow
0.87

allows per match

Salford City
0.77
Barrow
1.91

finishing

Salford City-0.32scores less
Barrow+0.13scores more

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salford City ↓

Barrow →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Salford City or draw
85%
Salford City or Barrow
79%
Draw or Barrow
37%

Winning margin

Salford City wins by 2+
38%
Barrow wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Salford City 1+ goals
85%
Salford City 2+ goals
57%
Salford City 3+ goals
30%
Barrow 1+ goals
56%
Barrow 2+ goals
20%
Barrow 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Salford City (draw refunded)
81%
Barrow (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salford City at home — creates 1.95, concedes 0.77 · 8 matches

Barrow away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.91 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salford City attack 1.95 + Barrow defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.93

Barrow attack 0.87 + Salford City defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Salford City scores more
63%
level
21%
Barrow scores more
15%

Salford City at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Salford City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Two: Salford City 3–1 Barrow

Salford City beat Barrow 3-1 in League Two on March 17, 2026.

The match was played at Peninsula Stadium in Salford.