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Barrow vs Salford City — League Two 2018

Barrow
Barrow
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Salford City
Salford City
4/1/2025League TwoLeague Two · Round 40SO Legal Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Barrow26%
×Draw27%
Salford City47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barrow
0.98
Salford City
1.40

Salford City creates 43% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

creates per match

Barrow
0.68
Salford City
1.43

allows per match

Barrow
1.38
Salford City
1.27

finishing

Barrow-0.28scores less
Salford City-0.43scores less

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barrow ↓

Salford City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–113%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Barrow or draw
53%
Barrow or Salford City
73%
Draw or Salford City
74%

Winning margin

Barrow wins by 2+
9%
Salford City wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Barrow 1+ goals
62%
Barrow 2+ goals
26%
Barrow 3+ goals
8%
Salford City 1+ goals
75%
Salford City 2+ goals
41%
Salford City 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Barrow (draw refunded)
36%
Salford City (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barrow at home — creates 0.68, concedes 1.38 · 5 matches

Salford City away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.27 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barrow attack 0.68 + Salford City defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 0.98

Salford City attack 1.43 + Barrow defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Barrow scores more
26%
level
27%
Salford City scores more
47%

Salford City at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Salford City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Barrow vs Salford City

Barrow and Salford City drew 1-1 in League Two on April 1, 2025.

The match was played at SO Legal Stadium in Barrow-in-Furness, Cumbria.