Salford City 1–0 Barrow: Result & Stats

Salford City

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Barrow

I. Henderson 29'

2/16/2021

League Two · Round 36The Peninsula Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Salford City63%

×Draw21%

Barrow15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Salford CityExpected goals in this matchBarrow

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.93

0.82

Salford City

1.93

Barrow

0.82

Salford City creates 135% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 8 away

1.95

creates per match

0.87

0.77

allows per match

1.91

creates per match

Salford City

1.95

Barrow

0.87

allows per match

Salford City

0.77

Barrow

1.91

-0.32scores less than expected

finishing

+0.13scores more than expected

finishing

Salford City-0.32scores less

Barrow+0.13scores more

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salford City ↓

Barrow →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Salford City or draw

85%

Salford City or Barrow

79%

Draw or Barrow

37%

Winning margin

Salford City wins by 2+

38%

Barrow wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Salford City 1+ goals

85%

Salford City 2+ goals

57%

Salford City 3+ goals

30%

Barrow 1+ goals

56%

Barrow 2+ goals

20%

Barrow 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Salford City (draw refunded)

81%

Barrow (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salford City at home — creates 1.95, concedes 0.77 · 8 matches

Barrow away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.91 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salford City attack 1.95 + Barrow defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.93

Barrow attack 0.87 + Salford City defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Salford City scores more

63%

level

21%

Barrow scores more

15%

Salford City at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Salford City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25

P. Coutts

Salford City · M

8.0

Match Events

29'

I. Henderson

57'

M. Goodridge← L. Hardcastle

69'

70'

73'

74'

81'

82'

B. Thomas-Asante← I. Henderson

82'

M. Ndjoli← B. Barry

90'

Paul Coutts

90+4'

O. Threlkeld← R. Gotts

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SalfordBarrow

Overview

53%Possession47%

8Total Shots7

2Corners4

14Fouls13

Shots

8Total Shots7

2On Target1

3Off Target5

3Blocked1

5Inside Box5

3Outside Box2

Passing

53%Possession47%

478Total Passes391

347Accurate Passes254

73%Pass Accuracy65%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

14Fouls13

2Yellow Cards2