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Salernitana vs Pordenone — Serie B 2018

Salernitana
Salernitana
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Pordenone
Pordenone
1/4/2021Serie BSerie B · Round 17Stadio Arechi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Salernitana51%
×Draw26%
Pordenone24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Salernitana
1.54
Pordenone
0.97

Salernitana creates 59% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 58 away

creates per match

Salernitana
1.51
Pordenone
0.81

allows per match

Salernitana
1.12
Pordenone
1.57

finishing

Salernitana+0.00on par
Pordenone+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salernitana ↓

Pordenone →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Salernitana or draw
76%
Salernitana or Pordenone
74%
Draw or Pordenone
49%

Winning margin

Salernitana wins by 2+
26%
Pordenone wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Salernitana 1+ goals
79%
Salernitana 2+ goals
45%
Salernitana 3+ goals
20%
Pordenone 1+ goals
62%
Pordenone 2+ goals
25%
Pordenone 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Salernitana (draw refunded)
68%
Pordenone (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salernitana at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.12 · 76 matches

Pordenone away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.57 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salernitana attack 1.51 + Pordenone defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.54

Pordenone attack 0.81 + Salernitana defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Salernitana scores more
51%
level
26%
Pordenone scores more
24%

Salernitana at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Salernitana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Salernitana vs Pordenone

Pordenone beat Salernitana 2-0 in Serie B on January 4, 2021.

The match was played at Stadio Arechi in Salerno.