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Pordenone vs Salernitana — Serie B 2018

Pordenone
Pordenone
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Salernitana
Salernitana
5/4/2021Serie BSerie B · Round 36Stadio Guido Teghil

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Pordenone44%
×Draw28%
Salernitana28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pordenone
1.32
Salernitana
1.00

Pordenone creates 32% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 77 away

creates per match

Pordenone
1.22
Salernitana
0.84

allows per match

Pordenone
1.16
Salernitana
1.43

finishing

Pordenone+0.00on par
Salernitana+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pordenone ↓

Salernitana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Pordenone or draw
72%
Pordenone or Salernitana
72%
Draw or Salernitana
56%

Winning margin

Pordenone wins by 2+
20%
Salernitana wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Pordenone 1+ goals
73%
Pordenone 2+ goals
38%
Pordenone 3+ goals
15%
Salernitana 1+ goals
63%
Salernitana 2+ goals
26%
Salernitana 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Pordenone (draw refunded)
61%
Salernitana (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pordenone at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.16 · 58 matches

Salernitana away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.43 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pordenone attack 1.22 + Salernitana defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.32

Salernitana attack 0.84 + Pordenone defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Pordenone scores more
44%
level
28%
Salernitana scores more
28%

Pordenone at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Pordenone will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie B: Pordenone 1–2 Salernitana

Salernitana beat Pordenone 2-1 in Serie B on May 4, 2021.

The match was played at Stadio Guido Teghil in Lignano Sabbiadoro.