Salernitana 2–3 Pisa: Result & Stats | Serie B

Salernitana

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Pisa

S. Nwankwo 90+5' (pen)

F. Tongya 14'

M. Tramoni 62'

N. Bonfanti 45+4' (pen), 2'

9/15/2024

Serie B · Round 5Stadio Arechi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Salernitana43%

×Draw26%

Pisa30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SalernitanaExpected goals in this matchPisa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.16

Salernitana

1.44

Pisa

1.16

Salernitana creates 24% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 115 away

1.50

creates per match

1.21

1.10

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Salernitana

1.50

Pisa

1.21

allows per match

Salernitana

1.10

Pisa

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Salernitana+0.00on par

Pisa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salernitana ↓

Pisa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Salernitana or draw

70%

Salernitana or Pisa

74%

Draw or Pisa

57%

Winning margin

Salernitana wins by 2+

21%

Pisa wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Salernitana 1+ goals

76%

Salernitana 2+ goals

42%

Salernitana 3+ goals

18%

Pisa 1+ goals

69%

Pisa 2+ goals

32%

Pisa 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Salernitana (draw refunded)

59%

Pisa (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salernitana at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.10 · 72 matches

Pisa away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.37 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salernitana attack 1.50 + Pisa defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.44

Pisa attack 1.21 + Salernitana defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Salernitana scores more

43%

level

26%

Pisa scores more

30%

Salernitana at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Salernitana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

N. Bonfanti

Pisa · F

8.2

Match Events

2'

N. Bonfanti↳ G. Bonfanti

14'

F. Tongya↳ S. Włodarczyk

33'

Giovanni Bonfanti

43'

Petar Stojanović

45+3'

Daniele Verde

45+2'

Pietro BeruattoPenalty confirmed

45+4'

N. BonfantiPenalty

46'

E. Torregrossa← S. Włodarczyk

46'

J. Braaf← A. Hrustić

46'

A. Calabresi← G. Bonfanti

47'

Oliver Abildgaard

50'

G. Piccinini← O. Abildgaard

54'

G. Maggiore← A. Tello

62'

M. Tramoni↳ G. Piccinini

63'

M. Højholt← I. Touré

63'

S. Angori← P. Beruatto

65'

S. Nwankwo← D. Verde

77'

N. Dalmonte← F. Tongya

77'

A. Rus← M. Marin

90+3'

Nicola Dalmonte

90+5'

Adrian Šemper

90+5'

S. NwankwoPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SalernitanaPisa

Overview

71%Possession29%

12Total Shots8

8Corners0

18Fouls9

Shots

12Total Shots8

7On Target5

3Off Target3

2Blocked0

7Inside Box4

5Outside Box4

Passing

71%Possession29%

665Total Passes280

583Accurate Passes210

88%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

18Fouls9

3Yellow Cards3

3Offsides3

Serie B: Salernitana 2–3 Pisa

Pisa beat Salernitana 3-2 in Serie B on September 15, 2024.

Goals: N. Bonfanti (2', 45+4' pen), F. Tongya (14'), M. Tramoni (62'), S. Nwankwo (90+5' pen).

Salernitana controlled possession (71%) and registered 12 shots to 8.

The match was played at Stadio Arechi in Salerno.

Salernitana vs Pisa — Serie B 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie B: Salernitana 2–3 Pisa