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Pisa vs Salernitana — Serie B 2018

Pisa
Pisa
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Salernitana
Salernitana
M. Marconi 73'
L. Mazzitelli 53'
T. Casasola 90+3'
G. Tutino 76'
2/9/2021Serie BSerie B · Round 22Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Pisa50%
×Draw26%
Salernitana24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pisa
1.47
Salernitana
0.93

Pisa creates 58% more chances

Season form · 114 home / 75 away

creates per match

Pisa
1.51
Salernitana
0.83

allows per match

Pisa
1.02
Salernitana
1.43

finishing

Pisa+0.00on par
Salernitana+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pisa ↓

Salernitana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Pisa or draw
76%
Pisa or Salernitana
74%
Draw or Salernitana
50%

Winning margin

Pisa wins by 2+
25%
Salernitana wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Pisa 1+ goals
77%
Pisa 2+ goals
43%
Pisa 3+ goals
18%
Salernitana 1+ goals
61%
Salernitana 2+ goals
24%
Salernitana 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Pisa (draw refunded)
68%
Salernitana (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pisa at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.02 · 114 matches

Salernitana away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.43 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pisa attack 1.51 + Salernitana defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.47

Salernitana attack 0.83 + Pisa defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Pisa scores more
50%
level
26%
Salernitana scores more
24%

Pisa at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Pisa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
G. TutinoSalernitanaSalernitana · F
7.9

Match Events

12'
Simone Benedetti
26'
Sofian Kiyine
41'
Luca Vido
44'
Mamadou Coulibaly
46'
M. Varnier← S. Benedetti
53'
L. Mazzitelli↳ R. Gucher
54'
L. Capezzi← S. Kiyine
54'
M. Đurić← C. Gondo
65'
E. Cicerelli← M. Coulibaly
72'
N. Siega← L. Vido
73'
M. Marconi↳ S. Palombi
76'
G. Tutino
81'
D. Soddimo← S. Palombi
81'
M. Marin← A. De Vitis
83'
P. Dziczek← P. Jaroszyński
83'
A. Anderson← F. Di Tacchio
87'
Marius Marin
90'
Tiago Casasola
90'
E. Pisano← S. Birindelli
90+3'
T. Casasola↳ G. Tutino

Possession

58%Pisa

Shots

15Pisa

Pass accuracy

55%Pisa

Statistics

PisaSalernitana
Overview
58%Possession42%
15Total Shots12
6Corners1
12Fouls18
Shots
15Total Shots12
7On Target6
8Off Target4
0Blocked2
10Inside Box7
5Outside Box5
Passing
58%Possession42%
416Total Passes281
290Accurate Passes163
70%Pass Accuracy58%
Goalkeeping
4Saves5
Discipline
12Fouls18
3Yellow Cards3
4Offsides4

Match Recap: Pisa vs Salernitana

Pisa and Salernitana drew 2-2 in Serie B on February 9, 2021.

Goals: L. Mazzitelli (53'), M. Marconi (73'), G. Tutino (76'), T. Casasola (90+3').

Pisa controlled possession (58%) and registered 15 shots to 12.

The match was played at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani in Pisa.