Salernitana 3–1 Livorno: Result & Stats | Serie B

Salernitana

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Livorno

10/31/2018

Serie B · Round 10Stadio Arechi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Salernitana50%

×Draw26%

Livorno24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SalernitanaExpected goals in this matchLivorno

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

0.98

Salernitana

1.54

Livorno

0.98

Salernitana creates 57% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 37 away

1.51

creates per match

0.84

1.12

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Salernitana

1.51

Livorno

0.84

allows per match

Salernitana

1.12

Livorno

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Salernitana+0.00on par

Livorno+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salernitana ↓

Livorno →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Salernitana or draw

76%

Salernitana or Livorno

74%

Draw or Livorno

50%

Winning margin

Salernitana wins by 2+

26%

Livorno wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Salernitana 1+ goals

79%

Salernitana 2+ goals

45%

Salernitana 3+ goals

20%

Livorno 1+ goals

62%

Livorno 2+ goals

26%

Livorno 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Salernitana (draw refunded)

68%

Livorno (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salernitana at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.12 · 76 matches

Livorno away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.57 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salernitana attack 1.51 + Livorno defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.54

Livorno attack 0.84 + Salernitana defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Salernitana scores more

50%

level

26%

Livorno scores more

24%

Salernitana at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Salernitana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff