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Livorno vs Salernitana — Serie B 2018

Livorno
Livorno
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Salernitana
Salernitana
9/29/2019Serie BSerie B · Round 6Stadio Armando Picchi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Livorno36%
×Draw27%
Salernitana37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Livorno
1.21
Salernitana
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 37 home / 77 away

creates per match

Livorno
1.00
Salernitana
0.84

allows per match

Livorno
1.62
Salernitana
1.43

finishing

Livorno+0.00on par
Salernitana+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Livorno ↓

Salernitana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Livorno or draw
63%
Livorno or Salernitana
73%
Draw or Salernitana
64%

Winning margin

Livorno wins by 2+
15%
Salernitana wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Livorno 1+ goals
70%
Livorno 2+ goals
34%
Livorno 3+ goals
12%
Salernitana 1+ goals
71%
Salernitana 2+ goals
35%
Salernitana 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Livorno (draw refunded)
49%
Salernitana (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Livorno at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.62 · 37 matches

Salernitana away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.43 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Livorno attack 1.00 + Salernitana defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.21

Salernitana attack 0.84 + Livorno defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Livorno scores more
36%
level
27%
Salernitana scores more
37%

Salernitana at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Salernitana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie B: Livorno 2–3 Salernitana

Salernitana beat Livorno 3-2 in Serie B on September 29, 2019.

The match was played at Stadio Armando Picchi in Livorno.