Salernitana 0–4 Inter: Result & Stats | Serie A

Salernitana

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 0

Inter

L. Martínez 89', 85' (pen), 77', 62'

9/30/2023

Serie A · Round 7Stadio Arechi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Salernitana17%

×Draw21%

Inter62%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SalernitanaExpected goals in this matchInter

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.93

2.01

Salernitana

0.93

Inter

2.01

Inter creates 116% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 36 away

0.73

creates per match

1.72

2.30

allows per match

1.12

creates per match

Salernitana

0.73

Inter

1.72

allows per match

Salernitana

2.30

Inter

1.12

+0.07on par

finishing

+0.31scores more than expected

finishing

Salernitana+0.07on par

Inter+0.31scores more

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salernitana ↓

Inter →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–111%

0–211%

0–37%

0–44%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–37%

1–43%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–25%

2–33%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Salernitana or draw

38%

Salernitana or Inter

79%

Draw or Inter

83%

Winning margin

Salernitana wins by 2+

6%

Inter wins by 2+

38%

Team goals

Salernitana 1+ goals

61%

Salernitana 2+ goals

24%

Salernitana 3+ goals

7%

Inter 1+ goals

87%

Inter 2+ goals

59%

Inter 3+ goals

32%

Draw no bet

Salernitana (draw refunded)

21%

Inter (draw refunded)

79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salernitana at home — creates 0.73, concedes 2.30 · 5 matches

Inter away — creates 1.72, concedes 1.12 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salernitana attack 0.73 + Inter defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 0.93

Inter attack 1.72 + Salernitana defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 2.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Salernitana scores more

17%

level

21%

Inter scores more

62%

Inter at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Inter will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

L. Martínez

Inter · F

10.0

Match Events

25'

Hakan Çalhanoğlu

54'

H. Mkhitaryan← D. Klaassen

54'

K. Asllani← H. Çalhanoğlu

55'

L. Martínez← A. Sánchez

60'

Jovane Cabral

62'

L. Martínez↳ M. Thuram

67'

Mateusz ŁęgowskiGoal cancelled

69'

Norbert Gyömbér

71'

P. Mazzocchi← A. Martegani

77'

L. Martínez↳ N. Barella

78'

M. Darmian← D. Dumfries

79'

G. Maggiore← E. Bohinen

79'

T. Stewart← Jovane Cabral

85'

L. MartínezPenalty

86'

L. Pirola← B. Dia

86'

L. Tchaouna← F. Daniliuc

86'

L. Agoumé← N. Barella

89'

L. Martínez↳ Carlos Augusto

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SalernitanaInter

Overview

36%Possession64%

12Total Shots16

0.62Expected Goals (xG)2.35

3Corners3

12Fouls10

Shots

12Total Shots16

3On Target6

4Off Target4

5Blocked6

6Inside Box11

6Outside Box5

Passing

36%Possession64%

326Total Passes584

246Accurate Passes509

75%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

12Fouls10

2Yellow Cards1

2Offsides1