Salernitana 1–1 Inter: Result & Stats | Serie A

Salernitana

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Inter

A. Candreva 90'

R. Gosens 6'

4/7/2023

Serie A · Round 29Stadio Arechi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Salernitana23%

×Draw23%

Inter54%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SalernitanaExpected goals in this matchInter

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

1.84

Salernitana

1.11

Inter

1.84

Inter creates 66% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 138 away

1.21

creates per match

1.91

1.77

allows per match

1.02

creates per match

Salernitana

1.21

Inter

1.91

allows per match

Salernitana

1.77

Inter

1.02

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Salernitana+0.00on par

Inter+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salernitana ↓

Inter →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–110%

0–29%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Salernitana or draw

46%

Salernitana or Inter

77%

Draw or Inter

77%

Winning margin

Salernitana wins by 2+

9%

Inter wins by 2+

31%

Team goals

Salernitana 1+ goals

67%

Salernitana 2+ goals

30%

Salernitana 3+ goals

10%

Inter 1+ goals

84%

Inter 2+ goals

55%

Inter 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Salernitana (draw refunded)

30%

Inter (draw refunded)

70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salernitana at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.77 · 39 matches

Inter away — creates 1.91, concedes 1.02 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salernitana attack 1.21 + Inter defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.11

Inter attack 1.91 + Salernitana defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Salernitana scores more

23%

level

23%

Inter scores more

54%

Inter at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Inter will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

G. Ochoa

Salernitana · G

8.9

Match Events

6'

R. Gosens↳ R. Lukaku

34'

Stefan de Vrij

38'

Lassana Coulibaly

46'

B. Dia← D. Bronn

65'

W. Troost-Ekong← L. Pirola

65'

H. Nicolussi← L. Coulibaly

66'

Lautaro Martínez← J. Correa

66'

M. Brozović← N. Barella

66'

R. Gagliardini← K. Asllani

70'

Hans Nicolussi Caviglia

75'

F. Dimarco← R. Gosens

79'

E. Bohinen← T. Vilhena

85'

E. Botheim← G. Kastanos

85'

E. Džeko← R. Lukaku

89'

Roberto Gagliardini

90'

A. Candreva↳ B. Dia

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SalernitanaInter

Overview

44%Possession56%

11Total Shots25

1.10Expected Goals (xG)2.94

2Corners8

14Fouls10

Shots

11Total Shots25

3On Target11

7Off Target8

1Blocked6

5Inside Box20

6Outside Box5

Passing

44%Possession56%

416Total Passes540

341Accurate Passes451

82%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

10Saves2

Discipline

14Fouls10

2Yellow Cards2

3Offsides1