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Salernitana U19 vs Ascoli U19 — Campionato Primavera - 2 2020

Salernitana U19
Salernitana U19
FT
0 – 1
Ascoli U19
Ascoli U19
2/17/2024Campionato Primavera - 2Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group B - 19Campo Vincenzo Volpe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Salernitana U1935%
×Draw24%
Ascoli U1941%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Salernitana U19
1.46
Ascoli U19
1.59

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 84 home / 73 away

creates per match

Salernitana U19
1.33
Ascoli U19
1.48

allows per match

Salernitana U19
1.70
Ascoli U19
1.58

finishing

Salernitana U19+0.00on par
Ascoli U19+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salernitana U19 ↓

Ascoli U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Salernitana U19 or draw
59%
Salernitana U19 or Ascoli U19
76%
Draw or Ascoli U19
65%

Winning margin

Salernitana U19 wins by 2+
16%
Ascoli U19 wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Salernitana U19 1+ goals
77%
Salernitana U19 2+ goals
43%
Salernitana U19 3+ goals
18%
Ascoli U19 1+ goals
80%
Ascoli U19 2+ goals
47%
Ascoli U19 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Salernitana U19 (draw refunded)
46%
Ascoli U19 (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salernitana U19 at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.70 · 84 matches

Ascoli U19 away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.58 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salernitana U19 attack 1.33 + Ascoli U19 defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.46

Ascoli U19 attack 1.48 + Salernitana U19 defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Salernitana U19 scores more
35%
level
24%
Ascoli U19 scores more
41%

Ascoli U19 at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Ascoli U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Campionato Primavera - 2: Salernitana U19 0–1 Ascoli U19

Ascoli U19 beat Salernitana U19 1-0 in Campionato Primavera - 2 on February 17, 2024.

The match was played at Campo Vincenzo Volpe in Salerno.