Ascoli U19 4–2 Salernitana U19: Result & Stats

Ascoli U19

FT

4 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Salernitana U19

2/7/2026

Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group B - 18

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Ascoli U1958%

×Draw21%

Salernitana U1921%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ascoli U19Expected goals in this matchSalernitana U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.09

1.18

Ascoli U19

2.09

Salernitana U19

1.18

Ascoli U19 creates 77% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 84 away

2.00

creates per match

1.10

1.25

allows per match

2.18

creates per match

Ascoli U19

2.00

Salernitana U19

1.10

allows per match

Ascoli U19

1.25

Salernitana U19

2.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ascoli U19+0.00on par

Salernitana U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ascoli U19 ↓

Salernitana U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Ascoli U19 or draw

79%

Ascoli U19 or Salernitana U19

79%

Draw or Salernitana U19

42%

Winning margin

Ascoli U19 wins by 2+

35%

Salernitana U19 wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Ascoli U19 1+ goals

88%

Ascoli U19 2+ goals

62%

Ascoli U19 3+ goals

34%

Salernitana U19 1+ goals

69%

Salernitana U19 2+ goals

33%

Salernitana U19 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Ascoli U19 (draw refunded)

73%

Salernitana U19 (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ascoli U19 at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.25 · 75 matches

Salernitana U19 away — creates 1.10, concedes 2.18 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ascoli U19 attack 2.00 + Salernitana U19 defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 2.09

Salernitana U19 attack 1.10 + Ascoli U19 defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Ascoli U19 scores more

58%

level

21%

Salernitana U19 scores more

21%

Ascoli U19 at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Ascoli U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff