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Salaspils vs Jēkabpils — 1. Liga 2026

Salaspils
Salaspils
FT
2 – 5
Jēkabpils
Jēkabpils
5/4/20141. Liga1. Liga · Round 6Salaspils sporta skolas stadions

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Salaspils48%
×Draw19%
Jēkabpils33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Salaspils
2.73
Jēkabpils
2.26

Salaspils creates 21% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 4 away

creates per match

Salaspils
1.47
Jēkabpils
2.00

allows per match

Salaspils
2.53
Jēkabpils
4.00

finishing

Salaspils+0.00on par
Jēkabpils+0.00on par

Total goals

87%Over
  • Over87
  • Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

84%Yes
  • Yes84
  • No16

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salaspils ↓

Jēkabpils →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–14%
1–25%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–26%
3–35%
3–43%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–24%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
87%13%3.5
73%27%4.5
54%46%

Double chance

Salaspils or draw
67%
Salaspils or Jēkabpils
81%
Draw or Jēkabpils
52%

Winning margin

Salaspils wins by 2+
30%
Jēkabpils wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Salaspils 1+ goals
93%
Salaspils 2+ goals
75%
Salaspils 3+ goals
50%
Jēkabpils 1+ goals
89%
Jēkabpils 2+ goals
66%
Jēkabpils 3+ goals
39%

Draw no bet

Salaspils (draw refunded)
59%
Jēkabpils (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
79%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salaspils at home — creates 1.47, concedes 2.53 · 15 matches

Jēkabpils away — creates 2.00, concedes 4.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salaspils attack 1.47 + Jēkabpils defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 2.73

Jēkabpils attack 2.00 + Salaspils defence 2.53 → ÷2 → 2.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Salaspils scores more
48%
level
19%
Jēkabpils scores more
33%

Salaspils at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Salaspils will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga: Salaspils 2–5 Jēkabpils

Jēkabpils beat Salaspils 5-2 in 1. Liga on May 4, 2014.

The match was played at Salaspils sporta skolas stadions in Salaspils.