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Jēkabpils vs Salaspils — 1. Liga 2026

Jēkabpils
Jēkabpils
FT
4 – 0
Salaspils
Salaspils
8/30/20141. Liga1. Liga · Round 20Jēkabpils SC stadions

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Jēkabpils59%
×Draw18%
Salaspils23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jēkabpils
2.77
Salaspils
1.74

Jēkabpils creates 59% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 15 away

creates per match

Jēkabpils
2.14
Salaspils
1.33

allows per match

Jēkabpils
2.14
Salaspils
3.40

finishing

Jēkabpils+0.00on par
Salaspils+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jēkabpils ↓

Salaspils →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–15%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
65%35%4.5
46%54%

Double chance

Jēkabpils or draw
77%
Jēkabpils or Salaspils
82%
Draw or Salaspils
41%

Winning margin

Jēkabpils wins by 2+
39%
Salaspils wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Jēkabpils 1+ goals
94%
Jēkabpils 2+ goals
76%
Jēkabpils 3+ goals
51%
Salaspils 1+ goals
82%
Salaspils 2+ goals
52%
Salaspils 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Jēkabpils (draw refunded)
71%
Salaspils (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
72%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jēkabpils at home — creates 2.14, concedes 2.14 · 7 matches

Salaspils away — creates 1.33, concedes 3.40 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jēkabpils attack 2.14 + Salaspils defence 3.40 → ÷2 → 2.77

Salaspils attack 1.33 + Jēkabpils defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Jēkabpils scores more
59%
level
18%
Salaspils scores more
23%

Jēkabpils at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Jēkabpils will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga: Jēkabpils 4–0 Salaspils

Jēkabpils beat Salaspils 4-0 in 1. Liga on August 30, 2014.

The match was played at Jēkabpils SC stadions in Jēkabpils.