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Salamanca UDS vs Real Oviedo II — League #875 2026

Salamanca UDS
Salamanca UDS
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Real Oviedo II
Real Oviedo II
12/14/2025League #875League #875 · Group 1 - 15Estadio El Helmántico

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Salamanca UDS45%
×Draw28%
Real Oviedo II27%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Salamanca UDS
1.33
Real Oviedo II
0.96

Salamanca UDS creates 39% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

creates per match

Salamanca UDS
1.47
Real Oviedo II
0.73

allows per match

Salamanca UDS
1.20
Real Oviedo II
1.20

finishing

Salamanca UDS+0.00on par
Real Oviedo II+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salamanca UDS ↓

Real Oviedo II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Salamanca UDS or draw
73%
Salamanca UDS or Real Oviedo II
72%
Draw or Real Oviedo II
55%

Winning margin

Salamanca UDS wins by 2+
21%
Real Oviedo II wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Salamanca UDS 1+ goals
74%
Salamanca UDS 2+ goals
38%
Salamanca UDS 3+ goals
15%
Real Oviedo II 1+ goals
62%
Real Oviedo II 2+ goals
25%
Real Oviedo II 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Salamanca UDS (draw refunded)
63%
Real Oviedo II (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salamanca UDS at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.20 · 15 matches

Real Oviedo II away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.20 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salamanca UDS attack 1.47 + Real Oviedo II defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.33

Real Oviedo II attack 0.73 + Salamanca UDS defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Salamanca UDS scores more
45%
level
28%
Real Oviedo II scores more
27%

Salamanca UDS at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Salamanca UDS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #875: Salamanca UDS 0–0 Real Oviedo II

Salamanca UDS and Real Oviedo II drew 0-0 in League #875 on December 14, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio El Helmántico in Villares de la Reina.