Real Oviedo II 5–2 Salamanca UDS: Result & Stats

Real Oviedo II

FT

5 – 2

HT: 5 – 0

Salamanca UDS

I. Gil 45+3', 15'

L. Antanon 27', 8'

C. Pereda 24'

A. Barrera 71', 59'

3/1/2026

League #875 · Group 1 - 25Estadio El Requexón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Real Oviedo II44%

×Draw26%

Salamanca UDS30%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real Oviedo IIExpected goals in this matchSalamanca UDS

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

1.17

Real Oviedo II

1.47

Salamanca UDS

1.17

Real Oviedo II creates 26% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

1.67

creates per match

0.93

1.40

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Real Oviedo II

1.67

Salamanca UDS

0.93

allows per match

Real Oviedo II

1.40

Salamanca UDS

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Oviedo II+0.00on par

Salamanca UDS+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Oviedo II ↓

Salamanca UDS →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Real Oviedo II or draw

70%

Real Oviedo II or Salamanca UDS

74%

Draw or Salamanca UDS

56%

Winning margin

Real Oviedo II wins by 2+

21%

Salamanca UDS wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Real Oviedo II 1+ goals

77%

Real Oviedo II 2+ goals

43%

Real Oviedo II 3+ goals

18%

Salamanca UDS 1+ goals

69%

Salamanca UDS 2+ goals

33%

Salamanca UDS 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Real Oviedo II (draw refunded)

59%

Salamanca UDS (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Oviedo II at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.40 · 15 matches

Salamanca UDS away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.27 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Oviedo II attack 1.67 + Salamanca UDS defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.47

Salamanca UDS attack 0.93 + Real Oviedo II defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Real Oviedo II scores more

44%

level

26%

Salamanca UDS scores more

30%

Real Oviedo II at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Real Oviedo II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

15'

24'

27'

45+3'

59'

A. Barrera

71'

A. Barrera

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff