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Salamanca UDS vs Real Ávila — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Salamanca UDS
Salamanca UDS
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Real Ávila
Real Ávila
10/15/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 6Estadio El Helmántico

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Salamanca UDS52%
×Draw28%
Real Ávila20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Salamanca UDS
1.36
Real Ávila
0.74

Salamanca UDS creates 84% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 76 away

creates per match

Salamanca UDS
1.82
Real Ávila
1.14

allows per match

Salamanca UDS
0.35
Real Ávila
0.91

finishing

Salamanca UDS+0.00on par
Real Ávila+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salamanca UDS ↓

Real Ávila →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Salamanca UDS or draw
80%
Salamanca UDS or Real Ávila
72%
Draw or Real Ávila
48%

Winning margin

Salamanca UDS wins by 2+
25%
Real Ávila wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Salamanca UDS 1+ goals
74%
Salamanca UDS 2+ goals
39%
Salamanca UDS 3+ goals
16%
Real Ávila 1+ goals
52%
Real Ávila 2+ goals
17%
Real Ávila 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Salamanca UDS (draw refunded)
72%
Real Ávila (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salamanca UDS at home — creates 1.82, concedes 0.35 · 17 matches

Real Ávila away — creates 1.14, concedes 0.91 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salamanca UDS attack 1.82 + Real Ávila defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.36

Real Ávila attack 1.14 + Salamanca UDS defence 0.35 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Salamanca UDS scores more
52%
level
28%
Real Ávila scores more
20%

Salamanca UDS at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Salamanca UDS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Salamanca UDS vs Real Ávila

Real Ávila beat Salamanca UDS 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on October 15, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio El Helmántico in Salamanca.