Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Real Ávila vs Salamanca UDS — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Real Ávila
Real Ávila
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Salamanca UDS
Salamanca UDS
3/3/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 23Estadio Municipal Adolfo Suárez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Real Ávila31%
×Draw28%
Salamanca UDS41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Ávila
1.08
Salamanca UDS
1.29

Salamanca UDS creates 19% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 17 away

creates per match

Real Ávila
1.58
Salamanca UDS
1.82

allows per match

Real Ávila
0.75
Salamanca UDS
0.59

finishing

Real Ávila+0.00on par
Salamanca UDS+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Ávila ↓

Salamanca UDS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Real Ávila or draw
59%
Real Ávila or Salamanca UDS
72%
Draw or Salamanca UDS
69%

Winning margin

Real Ávila wins by 2+
12%
Salamanca UDS wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Real Ávila 1+ goals
66%
Real Ávila 2+ goals
29%
Real Ávila 3+ goals
10%
Salamanca UDS 1+ goals
72%
Salamanca UDS 2+ goals
37%
Salamanca UDS 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Real Ávila (draw refunded)
43%
Salamanca UDS (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Ávila at home — creates 1.58, concedes 0.75 · 76 matches

Salamanca UDS away — creates 1.82, concedes 0.59 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Ávila attack 1.58 + Salamanca UDS defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 1.08

Salamanca UDS attack 1.82 + Real Ávila defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Real Ávila scores more
31%
level
28%
Salamanca UDS scores more
41%

Salamanca UDS at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Salamanca UDS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Real Ávila vs Salamanca UDS

Salamanca UDS beat Real Ávila 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on March 3, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Adolfo Suárez in Ávila.